UTSA @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

3-4 · Power #82

final

Final

Tulsa

2-5 · Power #131

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -9.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 91 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 31–22 TLSA

✗ UTSA (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -9

CloseUTSA -9.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -9

0.5 → UTSA

CloseUTSA -9.5

0.5 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -9 · closed UTSA -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward UTSAmodel UTSA -10.5

model UTSA -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 53% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -9

CloseUTSA -9.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 9.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 46–45 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 91 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 9.9; 52.3 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	SJSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	35–0	W	U57
Very close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Very close	UNT @ FIU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	49–7	W	U57.25
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LWLLW	2-4	33%	0-4	2-1
TLSA LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-3	2-4

Venue/role: UTSA away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OUUOO	4-2	67%	3-4
TLSA UUOOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Went over in Q3. Of 299 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%
TLSA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+1.0 →−6.5▼ 7.5#96

TLSA−9.9 →−18.3▼ 8.4#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UTSA

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#101

Offense

Even

#110

#63

Defense

◀ UTSA better

#111

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #80

80 plays #2

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #94	34.6 #122	UTSA
Yards / play	5.14 #111	6.52 #125	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #89	+0.27 #127	UTSA
Success rate	38% #109	41% #71	TLSA

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	TLSA off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #109	30.1 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #103	5.54 #74	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.09 #68	UTSA
Success rate	36% #121	34% #6	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	5.7 #74	8.9 #64	14.6 #66	3.4 #116	7.0 #68	10.4 #106
TLSA allowed	5.4 #73	11.4 #128	16.9 #113	10.4 #132	7.3 #93	17.7 #126

TLSA scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	4.4 #99	6.7 #102	11.1 #102	4.4 #100	6.3 #85	10.7 #104
UTSA allowed	5.9 #80	10.1 #111	16.0 #108	8.4 #119	5.7 #54	14.1 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.