Oregon State @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at California

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

4-3 · Power #98

final

Final

California

3-4 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAL -11.5

✓ CAL W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 20–31 CAL

✓ CAL (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -11

CloseCAL -11.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -11

0.5 → CAL

CloseCAL -11.5

0.5 pts toward California

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -11 · closed CAL -11.5 · moved 0.5 toward CALmodel CAL -8.5

model CAL -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 36% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -11

CloseCAL -11.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as an 11.5-point home favorite against ORST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 44–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 10.9; 46.1 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Very close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	23–24	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST –WLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	0-1
CAL WLWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST –OOOU	3-3	50%	4-3
CAL UUOUO	2-5	29%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 295 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	4-6 40%	2-7 22%	4-5 44%
CAL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ORST 1–0 CAL ORST leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Oregon State 52 @ California 40	ORST -10	ORST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+7.8 →−0.9▼ 8.7#73

CAL+2.0 →+4.4▲ 2.4#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ORST

Longer bar = better

CAL

#55

Offense

◀ ORST better

#95

#109

Defense

CAL better ▶

#45

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+1.6 #4

75 plays #5

Pace

◀ ORST faster

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #57	18.7 #23	CAL
Yards / play	5.73 #80	5.01 #33	CAL
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.06 #49	Even
Success rate	47% #26	41% #73	ORST

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	27.3 #91	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #95	6.39 #120	CAL
PPA / play	+0.08 #91	+0.19 #109	Even
Success rate	41% #94	45% #115	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	5.4 #83	9.3 #55	14.7 #61	4.0 #105	9.4 #19	13.4 #66
CAL allowed	5.7 #80	3.9 #9	9.6 #33	1.1 #5	8.0 #104	9.1 #25

CAL scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.9 #72	6.1 #112	12.0 #100	7.3 #48	4.7 #118	12.0 #90
ORST allowed	4.7 #58	6.4 #51	11.1 #53	4.3 #37	10.9 #128	15.1 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.