Wake Forest @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

3-4 · Power #89

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

2-5 · Power #96

final

Closing spread

WAKE -2.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 28–27 STAN

✓ WAKE (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -2.5

no move

CloseWAKE -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

▼ 4

Close51.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -2.5 · unchangedmodel STAN -2.5

model STAN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (112 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 2.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 27–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 51.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 2.6; 46.8 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	CMU @ BUFF 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	13–37	L	U52
Very close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–13	W	U55.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Close	LT @ FIU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	10–17	L	U49
Close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Close	UAB @ NAVY 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	6–31	L	U52
Close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	41–38	W	O54
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	24–27	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LLWLW	3-3	50%	2-0	1-1
STAN WLLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: WAKE away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UOOUU	3-3	50%	3-4
STAN UUUOU	2-5	29%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
STAN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−3.0 →−5.0▼ 2.0#90

STAN−5.0 →−6.8▼ 1.8#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WAKE

Longer bar = better

STAN

#70

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#128

#120

Defense

Even

#116

−0.3 #86

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #87

71 plays #24

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #77	32.1 #116	WAKE
Yards / play	5.59 #86	6.41 #123	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	+0.21 #117	WAKE
Success rate	45% #50	44% #109	WAKE

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #125	32.0 #115	Even
Yards / play	4.44 #132	6.22 #113	Even
PPA / play	−0.12 #136	+0.24 #122	Even
Success rate	37% #118	50% #131	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.1 #65	8.7 #65	14.9 #61	7.9 #32	4.4 #123	12.3 #84
STAN allowed	7.4 #112	8.3 #80	15.7 #100	7.9 #113	8.6 #109	16.4 #121

STAN scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.0 #107	5.3 #119	9.3 #119	4.9 #93	4.7 #119	9.6 #114
WAKE allowed	7.1 #110	10.1 #111	17.3 #114	6.4 #85	8.3 #107	14.7 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.