Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

5-3 · Power #36

final

Final

Virginia Tech

4-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -11.5

✓ VT W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 22–32 VT

✓ VT (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -9

CloseVT -11.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -9

2.5 → VT

CloseVT -11.5

2.5 pts toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -9 · closed VT -11.5 · moved 2.5 toward VTmodel VT -4.5

model VT -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 35% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (72 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -9

CloseVT -11.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as an 11.5-point home favorite against GT, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 21–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 11; 56.7 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & total	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	BOIS vs BYU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	28–31	L	O54.5
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Very close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	47–45	L	O53
Close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT WL–WL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2
VT WLWWW	4-3	57%	1-2	3-3

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT OUUOU	2-5	29%	5-3
VT OOOUO	5-2	71%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	6-4 60%	5-3 63%	2-7 22%
VT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT+2.9 →+6.8▲ 3.9#36

VT+4.6 →+8.1▲ 3.5#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

#30

Offense

◀ GT better

#54

#78

Defense

VT better ▶

#55

+0.3 #59

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #47

67 plays #70

Pace

◀ GT faster

64 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #55	22.4 #56	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #30	5.37 #59	GT
PPA / play	+0.26 #18	+0.04 #41	GT
Success rate	49% #15	40% #64	GT

When VT has the ball

Advantage: VT offense

	VT off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #41	22.6 #60	Even
Yards / play	6.24 #42	5.58 #79	VT
PPA / play	+0.17 #55	+0.12 #86	VT
Success rate	43% #79	42% #88	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GT scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	8.3 #27	8.1 #79	16.4 #45	4.8 #95	9.3 #23	14.0 #63
VT allowed	4.4 #55	5.1 #30	9.6 #35	7.4 #107	4.4 #28	11.9 #65

VT scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	7.0 #49	7.3 #89	14.3 #71	5.7 #74	12.1 #4	17.9 #20
GT allowed	3.6 #40	7.6 #71	11.3 #56	5.4 #64	6.0 #60	11.4 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.