SMU @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

SMU

6-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Duke

6-1 · Power #60

final

Closing spread

SMU -11.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 30–19 DUKE

✓ SMU (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -11.5

CloseSMU -11.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -11.5

no move

CloseSMU -11.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -11.5 · unchangedmodel SMU -9.5

model SMU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 52% (71 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -11.5

CloseSMU -11.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as an 11.5-point road favorite at DUKE, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 28–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 77%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 9.5; 59.1 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	37–31	L	O53
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU L–WWW	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2
DUKE LWW–W	4-2	67%	2-2	2-0

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; DUKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU U–OOU	2-3	40%	6-1
DUKE OOUUU	3-4	43%	6-1

Went over in OT. Of 315 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	8-2 80%	5-3 63%	3-5 38%
DUKE	8-2 80%	6-3 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.3 →+13.5▲ 3.2#17

DUKE+4.0 →+2.0▼ 2.0#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SMU

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#32

Offense

◀ SMU better

#111

#15

Defense

Even

+1.0 #14

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #24

69 plays #45

Pace

◀ SMU faster

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	SMU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #8	17.3 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #37	4.29 #4	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.22 #33	−0.11 #5	DUKE
Success rate	45% #51	36% #13	DUKE

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	DUKE off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #91	20.6 #33	SMU
Yards / play	4.99 #122	4.76 #17	SMU
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	−0.10 #6	SMU
Success rate	37% #119	33% #2	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	12.4 #3	12.0 #16	24.4 #3	6.9 #58	9.4 #18	16.3 #30
DUKE allowed	4.7 #58	3.9 #11	8.6 #19	4.4 #39	3.3 #8	7.7 #11

DUKE scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.4 #34	5.9 #115	13.3 #85	4.6 #98	6.1 #91	10.7 #106
SMU allowed	4.4 #55	7.1 #64	11.6 #58	6.6 #93	2.4 #3	9.0 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.