Kansas @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas

2-5 · Power #35

final

Final

Kansas State

6-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -9.5

✓ KU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 23–33 KSU

✓ KSU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -10.5

CloseKSU -9.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -10.5

1 → KU

CloseKSU -9.5

1 pt toward Kansas

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -10.5 · closed KSU -9.5 · moved 1 toward KUmodel KSU -11.5

model KSU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 43% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (80 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -10.5

CloseKSU -9.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 29–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 9.6; 58.3 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	45–38	L	O58
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11	63–17	W	O54
Very close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	PITT vs MIA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–38	L	O61
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LLLLW	1-6	14%	0-3	0-2
KSU WLWLW	3-4	43%	2-1	3-4

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UOOOO	4-3	57%	2-5
KSU UUOOO	4-3	57%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 281 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
KSU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KU 0–1 KSU KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Kansas State 31 @ Kansas 27	KSU -7	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+7.2 →+5.6▼ 1.6#43

KSU+11.5 →+13.7▲ 2.2#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

KSU

#34

Offense

KSU better ▶

#19

#79

Defense

KSU better ▶

#35

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #53

64 plays #96

Pace

◀ KU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #53	20.6 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.41 #36	5.26 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	+0.04 #36	Even
Success rate	47% #26	36% #14	Even

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #33	24.0 #69	KSU
Yards / play	6.86 #17	5.54 #73	KSU
PPA / play	+0.32 #12	+0.12 #78	KSU
Success rate	48% #15	43% #97	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.0 #47	11.1 #23	18.1 #31	5.4 #83	6.9 #77	12.3 #85
KSU allowed	3.9 #35	7.1 #64	11.0 #50	3.4 #18	6.1 #68	9.6 #28

KSU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	7.3 #41	6.9 #101	14.1 #70	10.7 #8	8.4 #34	19.1 #8
KU allowed	3.9 #35	8.9 #91	12.7 #76	1.9 #7	9.4 #118	11.3 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.