Kansas State @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

5-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

West Virginia

3-3 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

KSU -2.5

✓ KSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 30–27 WVU

✓ KSU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -2.5

CloseKSU -2.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -2.5

no move

CloseKSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel KSU -3

model KSU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (109 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -2.5

CloseKSU -2.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 2.5-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 45–18; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 3; 57.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–16	W	U54
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	35–24	W	U60
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	MISS @ TA&M 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	31–28	P	O55.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-4
WVU LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU OUUOO	3-3	50%	5-1
WVU OOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 271 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WVU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+11.5 →+11.7▲ 0.2#19

WVU+4.6 →+6.2▲ 1.6#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

KSU

Longer bar = better

WVU

#24

Offense

◀ KSU better

#46

#56

Defense

◀ KSU better

#94

0.0 #78

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

−0.8 #117

64 plays #101

Pace

WVU faster ▶

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #47	26.0 #82	KSU
Yards / play	6.77 #20	5.94 #97	KSU
PPA / play	+0.30 #15	+0.21 #118	KSU
Success rate	49% #14	42% #78	KSU

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #59	21.0 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #44	5.53 #73	WVU
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	+0.10 #74	WVU
Success rate	47% #36	38% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.8 #55	6.8 #99	13.7 #77	10.2 #12	7.5 #56	17.7 #22
WVU allowed	1.7 #9	11.5 #128	13.2 #81	4.7 #49	8.2 #105	12.8 #79

WVU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	7.5 #35	10.2 #39	17.7 #36	4.0 #107	8.5 #36	12.5 #81
KSU allowed	4.0 #47	7.2 #65	11.2 #55	4.0 #31	5.8 #58	9.8 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.