TCU @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

TCU

3-3 · Power #34

▲ winner

Final

Utah

4-2 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

UTAH -5.5

✓ TCU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 23–29 UTAH

✗ UTAH (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -7

CloseUTAH -5.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -7

1.5 → TCU

CloseUTAH -5.5

1.5 pts toward TCU

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -7 · closed UTAH -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward TCUmodel UTAH -6.5

model UTAH -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (84 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -7

CloseUTAH -5.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 5.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 13–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 4.4; 53.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	34–16	W	U53
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5
Close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	28–13	W	U57
Close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-5.75	34–43	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LL–WL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-0
UTAH LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UO–OU	3-2	60%	3-3
UTAH UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
UTAH	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.0 →+5.2▼ 1.8#48

UTAH+6.4 →+6.0▼ 0.4#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TCU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#31

Offense

◀ TCU better

#90

#78

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#13

−1.7 #135

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

−0.5 #101

70 plays #29

Pace

Even

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #23	17.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.23 #44	4.87 #22	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.21 #37	−0.04 #11	UTAH
Success rate	48% #18	33% #2	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #80	30.8 #109	UTAH
Yards / play	5.81 #77	5.06 #37	TCU
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	+0.14 #89	Even
Success rate	41% #94	41% #75	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.3 #64	12.0 #16	18.3 #32	7.8 #34	9.2 #25	17.0 #25
UTAH allowed	3.2 #24	4.0 #14	7.2 #11	4.8 #50	5.0 #36	9.8 #33

UTAH scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.5 #82	10.7 #36	16.2 #50	4.7 #96	6.0 #92	10.7 #105
TCU allowed	7.5 #113	10.2 #112	17.7 #115	6.3 #85	6.8 #79	13.2 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.