Colorado @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F1 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

4-2 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Arizona

3-3 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -2.5

✓ COLO W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 27–30 ARIZ

✗ ARIZ (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -3

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -3

0.5 → COLO

CloseARIZ -2.5

0.5 pts toward Colorado

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -3 · closed ARIZ -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward COLOmodel ARIZ -3

model ARIZ -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (160 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -3

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 2.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 34–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 3.2; 47.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	AUB vs WKU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	41–17	W	O54
Very close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Very close	LOU vs SYR 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	41–3	W	U55.5
Very close	TEX vs KSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–17	W	U54.5
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	28–9	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO –WWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-0
ARIZ LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO –UOOO	4-1	80%	4-2
ARIZ UUUUO	2-4	33%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%
ARIZ	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

COLO 0–1 ARIZ ARIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Arizona 34 @ Colorado 31	ARIZ -8	COLO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+0.6 →+4.1▲ 3.5#54

ARIZ+9.2 →+4.1▼ 5.1#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

COLO

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#54

Offense

◀ COLO better

#84

#65

Defense

Even

#74

+0.7 #30

Turnovers

◀ COLO better

−0.7 #112

66 plays #81

Pace

Even

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #56	26.5 #89	COLO
Yards / play	6.09 #56	5.56 #74	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #52	+0.04 #45	Even
Success rate	45% #50	43% #89	COLO

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #91	24.3 #73	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #46	5.61 #78	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.05 #49	COLO
Success rate	40% #103	40% #61	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.0 #49	6.7 #101	13.7 #75	7.5 #43	8.2 #42	15.7 #38
ARIZ allowed	4.7 #60	9.2 #95	13.8 #84	5.7 #71	7.0 #84	12.7 #77

ARIZ scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	6.2 #69	3.8 #131	10.0 #111	8.3 #27	7.3 #62	15.7 #38
COLO allowed	7.3 #110	9.8 #105	17.2 #111	2.8 #11	4.3 #27	7.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.