Arizona State @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

5-1 · Power #18

final

Final

Cincinnati

4-2 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

✓ CIN W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 26–30 CIN

✓ CIN (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -4.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -2.5

2 → CIN

CloseCIN -4.5

2 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -2.5 · closed CIN -4.5 · moved 2 toward CINmodel CIN -4.5 matches the line

model CIN -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (94 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -4.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 4.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 24–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 4.1; 45.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	37–30	W	O47
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	UAB vs LIB 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	12–36	L	U49
Very close	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WWLWW	5-1	83%	1-1	2-1
CIN WW–WW	4-1	80%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UOUOU	3-3	50%	5-1
CIN UU–OU	2-3	40%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
CIN	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU−3.3 →+5.7▲ 9.0#46

CIN−1.7 →+5.7▲ 7.4#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ASU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#40

Offense

Even

#29

#48

Defense

◀ ASU better

#76

+0.8 #26

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

+0.2 #64

69 plays #42

Pace

Even

69 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #45	20.2 #34	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #66	6.29 #118	ASU
PPA / play	+0.24 #33	+0.09 #68	ASU
Success rate	49% #15	42% #84	ASU

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #50	23.0 #64	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #22	4.77 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #22	+0.06 #54	CIN
Success rate	48% #21	39% #53	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.8 #39	10.8 #29	18.7 #32	7.3 #53	6.2 #82	13.5 #66
CIN allowed	2.7 #15	6.2 #50	8.8 #29	5.7 #71	5.7 #55	11.3 #55

CIN scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	11.5 #8	7.3 #89	18.8 #31	6.7 #65	5.5 #100	12.2 #89
ASU allowed	5.7 #78	5.0 #29	10.7 #53	5.2 #62	7.2 #89	12.3 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.