Baylor @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F20 mphgusts 32Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baylor

2-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

Texas Tech

5-1 · Power #46

final

Closing spread

TTU -4.5

✓ BAY W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 94 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 23–29 TTU

✗ TTU (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -6.5

CloseTTU -4.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -6.5

2 → BAY

CloseTTU -4.5

2 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -6.5 · closed TTU -4.5 · moved 2 toward BAYmodel TTU -11

model TTU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -6.5

CloseTTU -4.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 4.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BAY won 59–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 94 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 5.2; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Close	TCU vs WVU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	17–29	L	U58
Close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-4	34–16	W	U53
Close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Close	GT vs BC 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-6	23–38	L	O57
Close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2
TTU L–WLW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UUOOO	3-3	50%	2-4
TTU U–UOU	2-3	40%	5-1

Went over in Q3. Of 267 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TTU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 0–1 TTU TTU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TTU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Texas Tech 39 @ Baylor 14	BAY -1	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.0 →−0.2▲ 2.8#68

TTU+4.7 →+5.9▲ 1.2#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BAY

Longer bar = better

TTU

#96

Offense

TTU better ▶

#41

#43

Defense

◀ BAY better

#99

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+0.5 #44

66 plays #71

Pace

TTU faster ▶

73 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #75	32.3 #115	BAY
Yards / play	5.51 #96	6.22 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #116	+0.10 #71	TTU
Success rate	40% #98	43% #94	Even

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #18	24.0 #71	TTU
Yards / play	6.31 #42	5.05 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #47	+0.06 #55	Even
Success rate	45% #57	35% #7	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.8 #54	8.0 #77	14.8 #62	7.8 #35	5.3 #106	13.2 #69
TTU allowed	6.3 #93	9.0 #90	15.3 #100	7.2 #103	8.8 #114	16.0 #120

TTU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	12.2 #4	13.3 #8	25.5 #5	5.2 #82	7.5 #55	12.7 #78
BAY allowed	8.0 #119	7.5 #71	15.5 #103	4.5 #45	2.8 #7	7.3 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.