Oklahoma State @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

3-4 · Power #87

final

Final

Baylor

3-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -6.5

✓ BAY W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 28–34 BAY

✓ BAY (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -3.5

CloseBAY -6.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -3.5

3 → BAY

CloseBAY -6.5

3 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open64.5

▼ 1

Close63.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -3.5 · closed BAY -6.5 · moved 3 toward BAYmodel BAY -4.5

model BAY -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (110 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -3.5

CloseBAY -6.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 6.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 38–28; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 6.3; 66.6 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	CAL vs USC 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	24–14	W	U57.5
Close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Close	ARIZ vs TTU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	22–28	L	U63.5
Close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	28–41	L	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	1-2
BAY WLLLW	4-3	57%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST UUOUO	4-3	57%	3-4
BAY UOOOO	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 87 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BAY	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST+4.1 →+0.6▼ 3.5#69

BAY−3.0 →+2.3▲ 5.3#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

OKST

Longer bar = better

BAY

#63

Offense

Even

#72

#106

Defense

BAY better ▶

#52

+0.1 #71

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #83

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ OKST faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #52	25.6 #77	OKST
Yards / play	5.88 #65	5.11 #42	BAY
PPA / play	+0.19 #47	+0.09 #71	OKST
Success rate	42% #88	36% #18	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BAY offense

	BAY off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #38	28.7 #98	BAY
Yards / play	5.88 #64	6.63 #127	BAY
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.17 #105	Even
Success rate	42% #91	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	4.3 #103	9.4 #46	13.7 #79	5.3 #87	10.7 #7	16.0 #34
BAY allowed	7.9 #116	7.4 #69	15.3 #98	4.9 #51	4.4 #29	9.3 #28

BAY scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.9 #54	9.3 #51	16.1 #46	8.7 #24	7.6 #52	16.3 #31
OKST allowed	5.4 #73	9.3 #99	14.7 #91	5.4 #62	8.6 #109	14.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.