BYU @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

BYU

7-0 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

UCF

3-4 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

UCF -2.5

✓ BYU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 24–26 UCF

✗ UCF (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -1

CloseUCF -2.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -1

3.5 → UCF

CloseUCF -2.5

3.5 pts toward UCF

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -1 · closed UCF -2.5 · moved 3.5 toward UCFmodel UCF -2

model UCF -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (162 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -1

CloseUCF -2.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 2.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 37–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 2.7; 46.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	24–14	W	U51
Very close	UTAH vs ASU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	35–21	W	O51.25
Very close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU –WWWL	4-1	80%	2-0	3-0
UCF WLLLW	4-3	57%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU –UOOO	3-2	60%	7-0
UCF OOUUO	5-2	71%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 282 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	7-3 70%	6-2 75%	5-3 63%
UCF	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BYU 4–1 UCF BYU leads · 5 games since 2011 · BYU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU−4.1 →+8.5▲ 12.6#26

UCF+6.5 →+7.0▲ 0.5#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BYU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#41

Offense

Even

#40

#28

Defense

◀ BYU better

#67

+0.9 #23

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

−0.4 #93

64 plays #92

Pace

UCF faster ▶

70 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #24	25.7 #78	BYU
Yards / play	6.24 #43	5.42 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #42	+0.10 #75	BYU
Success rate	45% #55	40% #52	Even

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #48	19.0 #26	BYU
Yards / play	6.64 #23	4.69 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #64	0.00 #25	BYU
Success rate	47% #24	40% #48	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	8.0 #29	8.7 #65	16.7 #42	11.9 #4	6.3 #85	18.1 #14
UCF allowed	7.4 #112	7.7 #72	15.1 #96	5.7 #69	4.9 #36	10.6 #40

UCF scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	5.3 #87	9.1 #58	14.4 #68	11.3 #5	5.6 #100	16.9 #23
BYU allowed	3.4 #30	6.6 #53	10.0 #36	3.3 #15	5.7 #54	9.0 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.