Arizona @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F13 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

3-5 · Power #79

final

Final

UCF

3-5 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -5.5

✓ UCF W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 24–30 UCF

✓ UCF (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -6

CloseUCF -5.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -6

0.5 → ARIZ

CloseUCF -5.5

0.5 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -6 · closed UCF -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward ARIZmodel UCF -9

model UCF -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (96 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -6

CloseUCF -5.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 5.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 56–12; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 6.3; 53.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8	38–6	W	U58
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	42–14	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WLLLL	1-7	13%	1-2	1-2
UCF LLLWL	4-4	50%	2-3	2-4

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUOUO	3-5	38%	3-5
UCF OUUOO	6-2	75%	3-5

Went over in Q3. Of 291 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+9.2 →+1.4▼ 7.8#63

UCF+6.5 →+5.6▼ 0.9#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

UCF

#87

Offense

UCF better ▶

#40

#86

Defense

Even

#80

−0.6 #110

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #101

65 plays #89

Pace

UCF faster ▶

68 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #102	27.1 #86	Even
Yards / play	6.03 #54	5.55 #74	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	+0.14 #92	Even
Success rate	39% #105	41% #68	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #51	28.0 #91	UCF
Yards / play	6.65 #23	5.65 #79	UCF
PPA / play	+0.15 #61	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	47% #24	43% #96	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	5.5 #81	3.8 #131	9.3 #119	7.0 #54	7.1 #69	14.1 #54
UCF allowed	7.4 #112	8.9 #90	16.3 #108	6.3 #85	4.6 #26	10.9 #46

UCF scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	4.6 #98	9.3 #55	13.9 #75	9.9 #16	6.6 #79	16.5 #30
ARIZ allowed	6.5 #98	9.5 #106	16.0 #105	5.5 #61	6.5 #78	12.0 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.