Houston @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Fri, Nov 15, 2024, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Houston

4-5 · Power #76

final

Final

Arizona

3-6 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -1.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 21–23 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -1.5

CloseARIZ -1.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -1.5

no move

CloseARIZ -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 2

Close46.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -1.5 · unchangedmodel ARIZ -4.5

model ARIZ -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (112 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -1.5

CloseARIZ -1.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 1.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 27–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 3.5; 52.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs ILL 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-2	26–27	L	O44
Close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Close	KU vs HOU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–14	W	O45.5
Close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3	24–17	W	U48
Close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	35–31	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-2
ARIZ LLLLL	1-8	11%	0-5	0-5

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUU	1-6	14%	4-5
ARIZ UOUOO	4-5	44%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	6-2 75%	1-7 13%
ARIZ	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−3.5 →−1.4▲ 2.1#72

ARIZ+9.2 →−1.2▼ 10.4#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

HOU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#132

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#91

#47

Defense

◀ HOU better

#100

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.7 #117

59 plays #130

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	HOU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	15.2 #135	31.1 #105	ARIZ
Yards / play	4.93 #126	6.01 #100	ARIZ
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	+0.15 #93	ARIZ
Success rate	35% #133	44% #101	ARIZ

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	ARIZ off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #110	22.0 #43	HOU
Yards / play	5.88 #63	5.24 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	+0.10 #68	Even
Success rate	39% #108	38% #31	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.7 #126	6.3 #113	9.0 #123	1.3 #133	4.9 #122	6.2 #134
ARIZ allowed	7.3 #110	10.8 #119	18.1 #118	6.4 #88	6.6 #74	13.0 #78

ARIZ scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	4.9 #92	4.0 #130	8.9 #126	6.9 #49	6.3 #86	13.2 #66
HOU allowed	6.1 #90	6.3 #44	12.4 #69	4.4 #39	5.1 #39	9.6 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.