Baylor @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

6-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

Houston

4-6 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

BAY -6.5

✓ BAY W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 27–21 HOU

✓ BAY (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -7.5

CloseBAY -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -7.5

1 → HOU

CloseBAY -6.5

1 pt toward Houston

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -7.5 · closed BAY -6.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel BAY -6

model BAY -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 57% (105 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 64% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -7.5

CloseBAY -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 6.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 50.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 4.8; 59.3 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LWWWW	7-3	70%	3-2	5-1
HOU WLWWL	5-3	63%	3-1	4-3

Venue/role: BAY away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OOOOO	7-3	70%	6-4
HOU UOUUU	1-7	13%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
HOU	4-6 40%	5-3 63%	1-7 13%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 0–1 HOU HOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Houston 25 @ Baylor 24	BAY -2	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.0 →+5.2▲ 8.2#45

HOU−3.5 →−2.5▲ 1.0#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BAY

Longer bar = better

HOU

#29

Offense

◀ BAY better

#133

#67

Defense

HOU better ▶

#47

+0.1 #57

Turnovers

◀ BAY better

−0.6 #112

67 plays #72

Pace

◀ BAY faster

60 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #22	22.5 #46	BAY
Yards / play	6.43 #29	5.18 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #30	+0.10 #69	BAY
Success rate	46% #33	38% #33	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	HOU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #137	27.6 #84	BAY
Yards / play	4.96 #123	5.38 #57	BAY
PPA / play	−0.12 #137	+0.13 #87	BAY
Success rate	34% #134	39% #39	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	7.2 #39	10.6 #30	17.8 #33	7.5 #38	9.8 #15	17.3 #16
HOU allowed	6.2 #96	6.0 #37	12.2 #66	5.7 #72	4.6 #23	10.3 #33

HOU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.4 #130	6.0 #114	8.4 #128	1.2 #133	4.4 #127	5.6 #133
BAY allowed	7.2 #110	9.7 #103	16.9 #113	4.7 #42	5.3 #38	10.0 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.