Houston @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff32°F0 mphgusts 8DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston

4-7 · Power #76

final

Final

BYU

9-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

BYU -9.5

✓ BYU W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 15–26 BYU

✓ BYU (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -12.5

CloseBYU -9.5

Total42.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -12.5

3 → HOU

CloseBYU -9.5

3 pts toward Houston

Total

Open42.5

▼ 3

Close39.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -12.5 · closed BYU -9.5 · moved 3 toward HOUmodel BYU -19

model BYU -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 44% (96 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (101 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -12.5

CloseBYU -9.5

Total42.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 9.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 30–18; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 39.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.2 against an average line of 9.8; 46.6 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs ASU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	55–3	W	O39
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Close	DUKE vs WAKE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	24–21	L	O41
Close	PSU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	28–0	W	U45
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Close	UTAH vs CAL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	34–14	W	O43
Close	MICH vs NU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	50–6	W	O35
Close	M-OH vs BUFF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	23–10	W	U37
Close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWWLL	5-4	56%	2-2	4-4
BYU LWLLL	5-4	56%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUUUU	1-8	11%	4-7
BYU OOOUO	6-3	67%	9-2

Went over in Q4. Of 99 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	1-8 11%
BYU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−3.5 →−2.5▲ 1.0#75

BYU−4.1 →+9.5▲ 13.6#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

HOU

Longer bar = better

BYU

#133

Offense

BYU better ▶

#45

#42

Defense

Even

#40

−0.6 #115

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+0.7 #20

59 plays #131

Pace

BYU faster ▶

65 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	HOU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	13.6 #137	20.3 #26	BYU
Yards / play	4.94 #123	4.98 #27	BYU
PPA / play	−0.12 #136	+0.03 #33	BYU
Success rate	34% #134	42% #73	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #47	22.3 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #40	5.11 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.07 #54	Even
Success rate	45% #48	39% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.8 #128	5.5 #120	8.3 #130	1.1 #133	4.3 #129	5.4 #134
BYU allowed	3.5 #24	8.5 #91	12.0 #55	2.7 #6	5.5 #44	8.3 #14

BYU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.0 #62	8.9 #55	14.9 #50	10.3 #5	5.6 #109	15.9 #30
HOU allowed	6.3 #96	6.4 #43	12.6 #71	5.2 #60	4.5 #14	9.6 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.