Air Force @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F0 mphDryWeather watch ›

Air Force

4-7 · Power #108

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

3-8 · Power #122

final

Closing spread

AFA -6.5

✓ AFA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 23–18 SDSU

✓ AFA (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -3.5

CloseAFA -6.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -3.5

3 → AFA

CloseAFA -6.5

3 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -3.5 · closed AFA -6.5 · moved 3 toward AFAmodel SDSU -1

model SDSU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 58% (110 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -3.5

CloseAFA -6.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 6.5-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 31–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 4.5; 48.4 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	17–24	L	U42
Close	SJSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	27–20	W	O44
Close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & rest	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Close	FIU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	21–30	L	O47
Close	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	17–20	L	U43
Close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form	-6.25	10–21	L	U48.5
Close	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	39–27	W	O49.5
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	20–14	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LWWWW	4-7	36%	2-3	0-3
SDSU WLLLL	4-6	40%	2-2	3-5

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UUOUU	4-7	36%	4-7
SDSU UOUOO	5-5	50%	3-8

Went over in Q3. Of 232 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SDSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AFA 1–0 SDSU AFA leads · 1 game since 2023 · AFA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	San Diego State 10 @ Air Force 49	AFA -10.5	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−9.1 →−11.7▼ 2.6#114

SDSU−8.3 →−13.5▼ 5.2#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

AFA

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#121

Offense

Even

#118

#76

Defense

◀ AFA better

#99

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.3 #48

69 plays #46

Pace

◀ AFA faster

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	AFA off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #131	29.5 #99	SDSU
Yards / play	4.44 #135	5.83 #91	SDSU
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.16 #96	SDSU
Success rate	41% #99	45% #110	Even

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	SDSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #119	23.5 #56	AFA
Yards / play	5.01 #122	6.00 #98	AFA
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.12 #82	Even
Success rate	37% #127	41% #67	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	2.8 #129	6.5 #107	9.3 #123	0.8 #134	7.7 #50	8.5 #127
SDSU allowed	7.5 #114	7.2 #59	14.7 #92	5.6 #72	9.1 #114	14.7 #105

SDSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.5 #121	7.0 #93	10.5 #112	3.7 #118	7.3 #60	11.0 #104
AFA allowed	5.0 #66	6.2 #36	11.2 #47	6.7 #97	5.6 #44	12.4 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.