Air Force @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F6 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Air Force

3-7 · Power #108

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

3-8 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

NEV -2.5

✓ AFA W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 19–23 NEV

✗ NEV (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEV -3.5

CloseNEV -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEV -3.5

1 → AFA

CloseNEV -2.5

1 pt toward Air Force

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEV -3.5 · closed NEV -2.5 · moved 1 toward AFAmodel NEV -8

model NEV -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (199 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEV -3.5

CloseNEV -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEV as a 2.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 22–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.4; 48.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	NMSU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	27–13	W	U42.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	UNM vs UNLV 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	17–31	L	O45
Close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	17–24	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLWWW	3-7	30%	1-3	3-4
NEV WLLLW	6-5	55%	3-3	1-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; NEV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OUUOU	4-6	40%	3-7
NEV OUOOU	6-5	55%	3-8

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NEV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−9.1 →−12.4▼ 3.3#115

NEV−15.0 →−8.1▲ 6.9#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

AFA

Longer bar = better

NEV

#124

Offense

NEV better ▶

#65

#78

Defense

◀ AFA better

#103

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

NEV better ▶

−0.1 #78

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ AFA faster

64 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: NEV defense

	AFA off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	17.4 #131	28.5 #95	NEV
Yards / play	4.43 #135	5.99 #98	NEV
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	+0.19 #107	Even
Success rate	39% #106	45% #112	Even

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #97	24.0 #62	AFA
Yards / play	5.94 #59	6.00 #99	NEV
PPA / play	+0.14 #65	+0.12 #80	Even
Success rate	45% #40	42% #71	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.1 #124	6.4 #108	9.5 #122	0.9 #134	7.0 #67	7.9 #127
NEV allowed	7.2 #109	8.0 #75	15.2 #99	5.6 #67	7.7 #95	13.4 #81

NEV scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	5.7 #72	5.9 #116	11.6 #100	6.1 #68	6.5 #78	12.6 #77
AFA allowed	5.5 #76	6.2 #39	11.7 #55	6.8 #101	5.5 #43	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.