Western Michigan @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

5-5 · Power #107

final

Final

Central Michigan

3-7 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -5.5

✓ CMU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 32–27 CMU

✗ WMU (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -8.5

CloseWMU -5.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -8.5

3 → CMU

CloseWMU -5.5

3 pts toward Central Michigan

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -8.5 · closed WMU -5.5 · moved 3 toward CMUmodel WMU -3

model WMU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 51% (81 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 61% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -8.5

CloseWMU -5.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 5.5-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 3, covered 0, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 16–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 10 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 62%

Favorite covered

0 of 100%

Below normal · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 5.7 against an average line of 5.1; 55.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Very close	UAB @ NAVY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	6–31	L	U52
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	17–37	L	U59.5
Very close	LT @ ODU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4	20–23	L	U52.25
Very close	USU @ UNM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	44–41	L	O58.5
Very close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	24–38	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WWWLL	4-6	40%	2-4	3-2
CMU WLLWL	4-6	40%	3-2	3-3

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOOOU	7-3	70%	5-5
CMU OOOUU	6-4	60%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
CMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WMU 1–0 CMU WMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 7 2023	Central Michigan 28 @ Western Michigan 38	WMU -3	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.3 →−10.5▼ 0.2#105

CMU−12.0 →−15.7▼ 3.7#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WMU

Longer bar = better

CMU

#36

Offense

◀ WMU better

#95

#122

Defense

CMU better ▶

#97

+0.4 #34

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

−1.4 #134

63 plays #111

Pace

Even

63 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #43	31.8 #111	WMU
Yards / play	6.29 #38	5.92 #95	WMU
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.23 #117	WMU
Success rate	47% #23	41% #63	WMU

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: CMU offense

	CMU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #100	34.3 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #86	6.47 #120	CMU
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.24 #120	CMU
Success rate	40% #105	50% #131	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	6.6 #49	11.1 #21	17.7 #34	7.2 #46	6.4 #83	13.6 #62
CMU allowed	6.4 #98	11.4 #124	17.8 #118	5.2 #54	8.8 #113	14.0 #97

CMU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.7 #113	8.6 #57	12.3 #90	5.9 #70	5.7 #103	11.6 #92
WMU allowed	6.5 #100	11.1 #120	17.6 #115	9.0 #125	7.7 #94	16.7 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.