NC State @ Georgia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Thu, Nov 21, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Georgia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

NC State

5-5 · Power #67

final

Final

Georgia Tech

6-4 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

GT -7.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 22–30 GT

✓ GT (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -9

CloseGT -7.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGT -9

1.5 → NCSU

CloseGT -7.5

1.5 pts toward NC State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GT -9 · closed GT -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward NCSUmodel GT -12

model GT -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (115 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -9

CloseGT -7.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GT as a 7.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 30–29; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 8.4; 51.1 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-7	3–7	L	U46
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-10	25–9	W	U53
Close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-10	42–40	L	O52
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	14–31	L	U54
Close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	45–13	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LLWWL	2-8	20%	1-1	1-3
GT –WLLW	4-4	50%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; GT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OUOOU	6-4	60%	5-5
GT UOUUU	2-7	22%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 354 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
GT	6-4 60%	4-4 50%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.5 →−0.7▼ 6.2#70

GT+2.9 →+7.5▲ 4.6#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NCSU

Longer bar = better

#54

Offense

Even

#44

#90

Defense

GT better ▶

#63

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

GT better ▶

+0.1 #59

63 plays #115

Pace

GT faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #59	22.5 #46	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #68	5.54 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #41	+0.11 #72	NCSU
Success rate	44% #49	42% #66	Even

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #73	30.6 #105	GT
Yards / play	6.15 #43	5.83 #88	GT
PPA / play	+0.22 #30	+0.12 #79	GT
Success rate	46% #29	43% #86	GT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	3.7 #113	8.3 #68	12.0 #96	6.9 #50	9.7 #13	16.6 #23
GT allowed	3.9 #38	7.5 #67	11.4 #49	5.6 #66	5.5 #43	11.1 #50

GT scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	7.6 #34	7.5 #83	15.1 #53	4.5 #100	8.1 #40	12.6 #80
NCSU allowed	9.5 #129	8.1 #80	17.6 #117	7.5 #112	5.5 #43	13.0 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.