SMU @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

SMU

9-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

5-5 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

SMU -10.5

✓ SMU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 32–21 UVA

✓ SMU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -10

CloseSMU -10.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -10

0.5 → SMU

CloseSMU -10.5

0.5 pts toward SMU

Total

Open58.5

▼ 5

Close53.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -10 · closed SMU -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward SMUmodel SMU -11

model SMU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 54% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -10

CloseSMU -10.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 10.5-point road favorite at UVA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 33–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.9 against an average line of 10.1; 54.5 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	23–0	W	U55
Close	PSU @ IU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	45–14	W	O50
Close	ISU @ TTU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	38–41	L	O55.5
Close	ARK @ MSST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	58–25	W	O55
Close	TXST @ ODU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	14–24	L	U60
Close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WWLWL	4-4	50%	2-2	3-4
UVA WWLWW	6-2	75%	2-1	4-0

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; UVA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU OUOOO	5-3	63%	9-1
UVA UOUUU	3-5	38%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	9-1 90%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%
UVA	5-5 50%	6-2 75%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SMU 2–0 UVA SMU leads · 2 games since 2024 · SMU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.3 →+12.4▲ 2.1#17

UVA−2.9 →−0.3▲ 2.6#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SMU

Longer bar = better

UVA

#24

Offense

◀ SMU better

#93

#30

Defense

◀ SMU better

#89

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−0.4 #97

69 plays #47

Pace

UVA faster ▶

70 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	39.9 #6	27.5 #85	SMU
Yards / play	6.48 #26	5.85 #92	SMU
PPA / play	+0.22 #27	+0.19 #106	SMU
Success rate	45% #36	42% #73	SMU

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	UVA off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #94	22.4 #45	SMU
Yards / play	5.56 #84	4.91 #31	SMU
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	−0.05 #10	SMU
Success rate	41% #99	38% #32	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.4 #6	13.2 #3	23.6 #3	6.9 #50	8.7 #23	15.6 #36
UVA allowed	3.7 #28	11.0 #121	14.7 #95	8.2 #117	4.6 #21	12.8 #75

UVA scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	5.0 #88	7.0 #96	12.0 #97	4.4 #103	8.4 #30	12.8 #76
SMU allowed	4.1 #41	6.4 #44	10.5 #36	6.7 #95	4.6 #21	11.3 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.