Virginia Tech @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

5-5 · Power #38

final

Final

Duke

7-3 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -2.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 24–21 DUKE

✗ VT (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -2.5

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -2.5

no move

CloseVT -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -2.5 · unchangedmodel VT -3

model VT -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 44% (144 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -2.5

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 2.5-point road favorite at DUKE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 31–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 2.8; 52.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M @ SC 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	24–30	L	O44.5
Very close	TA&M @ SC 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–44	L	O43.5
Very close	NCST @ BC 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	33–7	W	U51
Very close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Very close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Very close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	BYU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	22–21	L	O40.5
Close	BSU @ CSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-2	28–19	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WWWLL	5-5	50%	3-2	4-4
DUKE –WWLW	6-3	67%	3-2	4-1

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; DUKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOUOU	6-4	60%	5-5
DUKE UUOOU	5-5	50%	7-3

Went over in Q3. Of 278 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
DUKE	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+4.6 →+8.1▲ 3.5#33

DUKE+4.0 →+3.2▼ 0.8#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#77

Offense

◀ VT better

#108

#39

Defense

DUKE better ▶

#24

+0.3 #45

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+1.1 #10

64 plays #106

Pace

DUKE faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	VT off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #59	22.1 #42	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #68	4.77 #16	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	−0.06 #7	DUKE
Success rate	41% #94	38% #31	DUKE

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	DUKE off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #82	22.5 #47	VT
Yards / play	5.08 #120	5.24 #44	VT
PPA / play	+0.04 #112	+0.02 #25	VT
Success rate	38% #117	39% #41	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VT scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	6.3 #52	7.2 #93	13.5 #75	5.4 #81	10.2 #12	15.6 #39
DUKE allowed	4.7 #60	5.3 #19	10.0 #29	5.6 #66	5.1 #34	10.7 #39

DUKE scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.8 #29	5.5 #122	13.3 #79	5.2 #87	6.4 #88	11.6 #99
VT allowed	3.4 #23	4.2 #9	7.6 #7	8.1 #119	5.4 #42	13.5 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.