Duke @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Duke

6-3 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

NC State

5-4 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

NCSU -3.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 23–25 NCSU

✗ NCSU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -2.5

CloseNCSU -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -2.5

1 → NCSU

CloseNCSU -3.5

1 pt toward NC State

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -2.5 · closed NCSU -3.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel DUKE -1

model DUKE -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (175 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 51% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -2.5

CloseNCSU -3.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 29–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 3.1; 43.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Very close	TEX vs KSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	22–17	W	U54.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	34–31	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE W–WWL	5-3	63%	2-1	3-1
NCSU LLLWW	2-7	22%	1-5	1-4

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE UUUOO	5-4	56%	6-3
NCSU UOUOO	6-3	67%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-5 50%
NCSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DUKE 1–0 NCSU DUKE leads · 1 game since 2023 · DUKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	NC State 3 @ Duke 24	DUKE -3.5	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.0 →+2.9▼ 1.1#57

NCSU+5.5 →−0.4▼ 5.9#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

DUKE

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#106

Offense

NCSU better ▶

#46

#28

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#94

+1.1 #12

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−0.2 #87

67 plays #66

Pace

◀ DUKE faster

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #82	30.8 #103	DUKE
Yards / play	5.11 #118	5.93 #94	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.12 #82	NCSU
Success rate	39% #110	44% #95	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #57	22.4 #52	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #55	4.86 #22	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.22 #29	−0.05 #6	DUKE
Success rate	45% #41	38% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.3 #39	6.1 #116	13.4 #79	5.0 #89	6.0 #87	11.0 #105
NCSU allowed	9.2 #129	9.0 #96	18.2 #119	7.6 #110	5.0 #36	12.6 #75

NCSU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	4.1 #106	8.2 #71	12.3 #95	7.3 #40	10.0 #11	17.3 #20
DUKE allowed	5.2 #62	4.9 #19	10.1 #33	5.9 #76	4.9 #29	10.8 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.