Syracuse @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F13 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Syracuse

6-2 · Power #43

final

Final

Boston College

4-4 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

BC -5.5

✓ BC W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 23–28 BC

✓ BC (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -1

CloseBC -5.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBC -1

4.5 → BC

CloseBC -5.5

4.5 pts toward Boston College

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BC -1 · closed BC -5.5 · moved 4.5 toward BCmodel SYR -0.5

model SYR -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (99 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -1

CloseBC -5.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 5.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 37–31; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 3.7; 45 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	SJSU vs FRES 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	42–18	W	O51.5
Close	ARIZ vs WVU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	26–31	L	O51.5
Close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-2	16–40	L	O53
Close	MINN vs MD 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	48–23	W	O45
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	CAL vs USC 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	24–14	W	U57.5
Close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LWWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	3-1
BC LLLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UOUUO	3-5	38%	6-2
BC UUUOO	3-5	38%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 351 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
BC	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SYR 0–1 BC BC leads · 1 game since 2023 · BC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 3 2023	Boston College 17 @ Syracuse 10	BC -1	BC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−2.1 →+2.9▲ 5.0#58

BC−1.3 →+0.3▲ 1.6#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SYR

Longer bar = better

#52

Offense

◀ SYR better

#94

#99

Defense

BC better ▶

#61

−0.4 #95

Turnovers

BC better ▶

+0.5 #37

79 plays #2

Pace

◀ SYR faster

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #41	22.0 #45	Even
Yards / play	5.61 #81	5.55 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #59	+0.08 #53	Even
Success rate	46% #28	42% #75	SYR

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #84	27.5 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.52 #95	6.02 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #96	+0.16 #101	Even
Success rate	40% #102	45% #107	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.8 #96	8.5 #64	13.3 #83	9.1 #19	7.8 #51	16.9 #25
BC allowed	3.4 #26	8.4 #82	11.8 #63	3.8 #22	6.5 #74	10.3 #35

BC scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.4 #99	10.3 #35	14.6 #61	7.4 #41	4.4 #127	11.8 #94
SYR allowed	6.4 #95	9.0 #96	15.4 #99	3.9 #24	7.9 #97	11.8 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.