West Virginia @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

4-4 · Power #63

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

5-3 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

✓ WVU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 25–31 CIN

✗ CIN (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -3.5

2 → CIN

CloseCIN -5.5

2 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -3.5 · closed CIN -5.5 · moved 2 toward CINmodel CIN -5

model CIN -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (99 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 5.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 6.1; 51.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs BC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	23–38	L	O57
Close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Close	ARIZ vs WVU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	26–31	L	O51.5
Close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7	3–7	L	U46
Close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Close	TCU vs WVU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	17–29	L	U58
Close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-5	24–14	W	U51
Close	TTU vs WVU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-5	48–10	W	U65.5
Close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Close	BOIS vs BYU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	28–31	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU WWLLW	3-5	38%	2-1	2-3
CIN –WWWL	5-2	71%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU OUUOO	5-3	63%	4-4
CIN –OUUO	3-4	43%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 301 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CIN	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WVU 1–0 CIN WVU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WVU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Cincinnati 21 @ West Virginia 42	WVU -5	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+4.6 →+3.7▼ 0.9#55

CIN−1.7 →+6.0▲ 7.7#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WVU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#67

Offense

CIN better ▶

#35

#102

Defense

CIN better ▶

#78

−0.8 #116

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.1 #66

68 plays #56

Pace

Even

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #68	21.1 #36	CIN
Yards / play	5.98 #61	6.19 #111	WVU
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.09 #63	Even
Success rate	43% #81	44% #103	WVU

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #64	28.4 #95	CIN
Yards / play	6.48 #27	6.18 #110	CIN
PPA / play	+0.23 #27	+0.26 #127	CIN
Success rate	47% #21	42% #74	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	7.3 #42	9.4 #52	16.6 #44	3.9 #113	8.3 #36	12.1 #89
CIN allowed	4.6 #55	5.9 #37	10.5 #39	6.0 #78	4.6 #25	10.6 #42

CIN scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	10.8 #5	8.1 #71	18.9 #22	5.0 #88	5.3 #114	10.3 #112
WVU allowed	2.5 #15	10.4 #117	12.9 #76	6.0 #78	9.5 #121	15.5 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.