Iowa State @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

7-1 · Power #24

final

Final

Kansas

2-6 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -2.5

✓ KU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 26–23 KU

✗ ISU (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3

CloseISU -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -3

0.5 → KU

CloseISU -2.5

0.5 pts toward Kansas

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -3 · closed ISU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward KUmodel ISU -4.5

model ISU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (128 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3

CloseISU -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 2.5-point road favorite at KU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 45–36 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 3.3; 52.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	40–43	L	O55
Very close	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Very close	NEB @ MINN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	23–30	L	O48.5
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	16–24	L	U52
Very close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5
Very close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WWWLL	5-3	63%	3-0	4-3
KU LLLWW	2-6	25%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; KU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOUOU	4-4	50%	7-1
KU OOOOO	5-3	63%	2-6

Went over in Q3. Of 338 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%
KU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ISU 0–1 KU KU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Kansas 28 @ Iowa State 21	ISU -2.5	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+4.2 →+12.4▲ 8.2#19

KU+7.2 →+6.0▼ 1.2#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ISU

Longer bar = better

#59

Offense

KU better ▶

#36

#29

Defense

◀ ISU better

#79

+1.1 #8

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

+0.1 #65

71 plays #27

Pace

◀ ISU faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #51	24.6 #69	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #46	5.70 #79	ISU
PPA / play	+0.18 #47	+0.12 #80	ISU
Success rate	42% #90	43% #89	Even

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #54	15.5 #9	ISU
Yards / play	6.38 #34	4.95 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #32	−0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	47% #25	41% #61	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.5 #79	8.0 #75	13.5 #78	6.9 #50	10.1 #9	17.0 #22
KU allowed	3.4 #28	9.8 #112	13.1 #77	2.5 #7	9.0 #114	11.5 #60

KU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.0 #45	10.6 #26	17.6 #33	6.4 #67	6.0 #87	12.4 #84
ISU allowed	4.8 #56	4.1 #12	8.9 #20	3.4 #18	3.3 #6	6.6 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.