UCF @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

UCF

4-5 · Power #37

final

Final

Arizona State

6-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -2.5

✓ ASU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 26–29 ASU

✓ ASU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -3.5

CloseASU -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -3.5

1 → UCF

CloseASU -2.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -3.5 · closed ASU -2.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel ASU -3

model ASU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (179 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -3.5

CloseASU -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 2.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 35–31; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 2.9; 53.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	21–52	L	O57.75
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LLWLW	5-4	56%	2-1	2-0
ASU LWWLW	6-2	75%	4-0	4-0

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UUOOO	7-2	78%	4-5
ASU UOUUO	4-4	50%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 305 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
ASU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UCF 0–2 ASU ASU leads · 2 games since 2002 · ASU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.5 →+8.0▲ 1.5#31

ASU−3.3 →+6.9▲ 10.2#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UCF

Longer bar = better

ASU

#26

Offense

Even

#32

#70

Defense

ASU better ▶

#47

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

+0.8 #26

68 plays #48

Pace

Even

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #33	22.9 #56	UCF
Yards / play	6.88 #10	4.91 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #43	+0.06 #49	Even
Success rate	48% #18	40% #56	UCF

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #45	25.4 #75	ASU
Yards / play	6.00 #56	5.45 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #19	+0.13 #83	ASU
Success rate	50% #8	41% #61	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	5.7 #73	10.6 #25	16.2 #46	10.3 #9	6.7 #78	17.0 #21
ASU allowed	5.5 #74	7.3 #64	12.8 #72	3.9 #26	6.3 #68	10.1 #33

ASU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.6 #35	9.9 #40	17.5 #36	7.3 #43	6.4 #83	13.6 #61
UCF allowed	6.6 #100	8.6 #89	15.1 #95	6.2 #83	4.1 #14	10.3 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.