UCF @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F9 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UCF

4-6 · Power #37

final

Final

West Virginia

5-5 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -3.5

✓ WVU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 31–27 WVU

✗ UCF (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -2.5

CloseUCF -3.5

Total64.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -2.5

1 → UCF

CloseUCF -3.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open64.5

▼ 4

Close60.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -2.5 · closed UCF -3.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel UCF -3.5 matches the line

model UCF -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (125 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -2.5

CloseUCF -3.5

Total64.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 3.5-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 31–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 3.8; 58.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Very close	COLO @ TTU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	41–27	W	O62
Very close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	32–39	L	O54
Close	WSU @ FRES 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	25–17	W	U60.5
Close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Close	ARK @ AUB 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	41–27	W	O60
Close	PITT @ UNC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–24	W	U62.5
Close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–14	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LWLWL	5-5	50%	2-2	3-4
WVU LLWWL	4-6	40%	1-5	3-4

Venue/role: UCF away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UOOOO	8-2	80%	4-6
WVU UOOOO	7-3	70%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 44% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
WVU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UCF 0–1 WVU WVU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WVU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	West Virginia 41 @ UCF 28	UCF -6.5	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.5 →+8.6▲ 2.1#29

WVU+4.6 →+2.6▼ 2.0#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UCF

Longer bar = better

WVU

#27

Offense

◀ UCF better

#70

#67

Defense

◀ UCF better

#108

−0.4 #96

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

−0.5 #110

69 plays #45

Pace

◀ UCF faster

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #33	30.0 #102	UCF
Yards / play	6.76 #13	6.22 #114	UCF
PPA / play	+0.19 #39	+0.24 #121	UCF
Success rate	47% #22	44% #95	UCF

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #54	26.4 #80	WVU
Yards / play	5.93 #63	5.38 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.12 #79	Even
Success rate	42% #87	41% #53	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	5.8 #66	10.5 #32	16.3 #40	10.0 #9	6.7 #74	16.7 #25
WVU allowed	4.1 #45	10.4 #118	14.5 #93	5.5 #66	10.0 #126	15.5 #112

WVU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	6.5 #48	11.3 #20	17.8 #33	3.8 #115	8.0 #46	11.8 #94
UCF allowed	6.6 #104	9.1 #97	15.7 #105	6.3 #90	4.4 #20	10.7 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.