Colorado @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

8-2 · Power #25

final

Final

Kansas

4-6 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

COLO -1.5

✓ KU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 29–28 KU

✗ COLO (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -2.5

CloseCOLO -1.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCOLO -2.5

1 → KU

CloseCOLO -1.5

1 pt toward Kansas

Total

Open59.5

no move

Close59.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened COLO -2.5 · closed COLO -1.5 · moved 1 toward KUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 51% (93 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (119 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -2.5

CloseCOLO -1.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 1.5-point road favorite at KU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: KU won 37–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 2.7; 55.1 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	ASU @ ORST 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	10–24	L	U59
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	25–39	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO WWWWW	8-1	89%	4-0	5-1
KU LWWWW	4-6	40%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: COLO away, as favorite; KU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO OUOOO	7-2	78%	8-2
KU OOOOU	6-4	60%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	8-2 80%	8-1 89%	7-2 78%
KU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+0.6 →+10.3▲ 9.7#23

KU+7.2 →+7.2–#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

COLO

Longer bar = better

#42

Offense

Even

#31

#34

Defense

◀ COLO better

#84

+0.8 #20

Turnovers

◀ COLO better

+0.3 #47

67 plays #71

Pace

◀ COLO faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #26	24.6 #67	COLO
Yards / play	5.98 #57	5.86 #93	COLO
PPA / play	+0.18 #41	+0.14 #91	COLO
Success rate	45% #44	43% #85	COLO

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #52	22.7 #49	Even
Yards / play	6.37 #31	5.15 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #22	0.00 #18	Even
Success rate	47% #19	38% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	8.4 #21	8.1 #71	16.5 #38	8.3 #23	8.6 #30	16.9 #19
KU allowed	3.4 #24	9.4 #100	12.8 #72	3.0 #9	8.8 #112	11.8 #59

KU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.7 #33	10.5 #32	18.2 #27	5.8 #72	6.2 #89	12.0 #88
COLO allowed	7.4 #112	7.2 #61	14.6 #94	3.1 #13	5.0 #31	8.1 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.