Utah @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Utah

4-5 · Power #49

final

Final

Colorado

7-2 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

COLO -13.5

✓ COLO W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 16–29 COLO

✓ COLO (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -10

CloseCOLO -13.5

Total48.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCOLO -10

3.5 → COLO

CloseCOLO -13.5

3.5 pts toward Colorado

Total

Open48.5

▼ 5

Close43.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened COLO -10 · closed COLO -13.5 · moved 3.5 toward COLOmodel COLO -8.5

model COLO -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 46% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (59 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -10

CloseCOLO -13.5

Total48.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 13.5-point home favorite against UTAH, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 49–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 12.4; 58.3 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5
Close	USA vs MRSH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-10	28–0	W	U45
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	40–20	W	O45
Loose	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Loose	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & situation	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Loose	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Loose	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Loose	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Loose	CLEM vs NCSU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-17.5	59–35	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLLW	3-6	33%	1-3	1-0
COLO WWWWW	7-1	88%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: UTAH away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UUUUO	2-7	22%	4-5
COLO OOUOO	6-2	75%	7-2

Went over in Q3. Of 210 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
COLO	7-3 70%	8-1 89%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTAH 37–33 COLO (3 tied) UTAH leads · 73 games since 1903 · UTAH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Colorado 17 @ Utah 23	UTAH -21.5	COLO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+6.4 →+3.6▼ 2.8#54

COLO+0.6 →+8.7▲ 8.1#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UTAH

Longer bar = better

COLO

#108

Offense

COLO better ▶

#45

#14

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#44

−0.8 #118

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

+0.8 #24

66 plays #81

Pace

COLO faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: COLO defense

	UTAH off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #108	22.6 #51	COLO
Yards / play	5.51 #93	5.30 #53	COLO
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.02 #31	COLO
Success rate	38% #116	39% #39	COLO

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	COLO off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #37	17.1 #11	UTAH
Yards / play	5.91 #62	4.94 #30	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.19 #43	−0.03 #12	UTAH
Success rate	46% #38	34% #2	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	4.4 #96	9.4 #46	13.9 #68	4.7 #98	4.0 #128	8.7 #123
COLO allowed	7.9 #115	7.3 #64	15.2 #96	2.7 #10	4.7 #23	7.3 #11

COLO scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.8 #32	8.2 #74	16.0 #49	8.4 #27	7.2 #61	15.7 #33
UTAH allowed	2.4 #12	5.3 #27	7.8 #11	3.9 #27	5.4 #46	9.3 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.