Baylor @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

5-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

West Virginia

5-4 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

BAY -1.5

✓ BAY W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 29–29 WVU

✓ BAY (51%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -1.5

CloseBAY -1.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -1.5

no move

CloseBAY -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 2

Close57.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -1.5 · unchangedmodel WVU -3.5

model WVU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -1.5

CloseBAY -1.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 1.5-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 49–35; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 2.8; 58.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	40–43	L	O55
Very close	PITT @ UNC 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–24	W	U62.5
Close	COLO @ TTU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	41–27	W	O62
Close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Close	BSU @ CSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	28–19	W	U51.5
Close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	25–39	L	O56.5
Close	WSU @ FRES 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	25–17	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LLWWW	6-3	67%	2-2	4-1
WVU WLLWW	4-5	44%	1-4	3-3

Venue/role: BAY away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OOOOO	6-3	67%	5-4
WVU UUOOO	6-3	67%	5-4

Went over in Q2. Of 292 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
WVU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 0–1 WVU WVU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WVU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	West Virginia 34 @ Baylor 31	WVU -12	BAY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.0 →+3.7▲ 6.7#52

WVU+4.6 →+3.7▼ 0.9#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BAY

Longer bar = better

WVU

#42

Offense

◀ BAY better

#71

#65

Defense

◀ BAY better

#98

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ BAY better

−0.4 #102

66 plays #75

Pace

Even

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BAY offense

	BAY off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #29	27.9 #92	BAY
Yards / play	6.32 #35	6.09 #107	BAY
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	+0.22 #114	BAY
Success rate	45% #51	42% #77	BAY

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #60	26.8 #84	WVU
Yards / play	5.97 #60	5.34 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	+0.14 #86	Even
Success rate	41% #95	38% #35	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.4 #55	9.4 #45	15.9 #51	8.3 #27	9.3 #16	17.7 #13
WVU allowed	3.0 #19	9.2 #100	12.2 #68	6.1 #85	9.6 #121	15.7 #115

WVU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	6.4 #55	10.2 #37	16.7 #39	4.2 #109	8.1 #38	12.3 #87
BAY allowed	7.2 #111	8.4 #86	15.7 #104	5.2 #61	5.1 #40	10.3 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.