Troy @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Troy

2-7 · Power #97

▲ winner

Final

Georgia Southern

6-3 · Power #90

final

Closing spread

GASO -7.5

✓ TROY W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 24–31 GASO

✗ GASO (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -8

CloseGASO -7.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -8

0.5 → TROY

CloseGASO -7.5

0.5 pts toward Troy

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -8 · closed GASO -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward TROYmodel GASO -7

model GASO -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (109 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -8

CloseGASO -7.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 7.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 28–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 6; 52.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Very close	GT vs BC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	23–38	L	O57
Very close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Very close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8	34–30	L	O48.5
Very close	JXST vs LT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-9	56–17	W	O54.5
Very close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.75	17–44	L	O52
Close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LLLWW	4-5	44%	2-2	3-3
GASO WLWLW	6-3	67%	3-1	1-2

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUOO	4-5	44%	2-7
GASO OUUOO	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
GASO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY+2.8 →−8.6▼ 11.4#105

GASO−6.0 →−5.1▲ 0.9#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TROY

Longer bar = better

GASO

#88

Offense

Even

#75

#99

Defense

◀ TROY better

#115

−0.7 #116

Turnovers

GASO better ▶

−0.1 #80

62 plays #123

Pace

GASO faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #109	30.4 #101	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #77	6.62 #126	TROY
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.20 #111	TROY
Success rate	43% #78	47% #121	TROY

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #58	27.8 #91	GASO
Yards / play	5.34 #102	6.03 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	+0.16 #98	GASO
Success rate	43% #77	44% #104	GASO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.7 #128	8.3 #69	11.0 #109	6.1 #64	5.3 #113	11.4 #99
GASO allowed	8.2 #121	7.2 #61	15.4 #103	10.1 #132	4.9 #31	15.0 #111

GASO scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	5.0 #86	9.4 #45	14.4 #63	6.0 #68	8.8 #23	14.8 #47
TROY allowed	5.9 #89	8.1 #83	14.0 #86	9.0 #124	4.8 #26	13.8 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.