Arkansas State @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F0 mphgusts 5DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

5-4 · Power #113

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

2-7 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

GAST -2.5

✓ ARST W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 28–31 GAST

✗ GAST (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGAST -1

CloseGAST -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGAST -1

1.5 → GAST

CloseGAST -2.5

1.5 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GAST -1 · closed GAST -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward GASTmodel GAST -4.5

model GAST -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (186 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 55% (95 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGAST -1

CloseGAST -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 2.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 3; 55.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	MRSH vs APP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	52–37	W	O56.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & total	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	31–23	W	P54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WLWLL	2-5	29%	1-3	1-3
GAST LLWWL	3-5	38%	1-3	0-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST UUOOO	4-3	57%	5-4
GAST UOUOU	4-4	50%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	2-6 25%	4-4 50%
GAST	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−7.6 →−11.9▼ 4.3#112

GAST−5.1 →−11.0▼ 5.9#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ARST

Longer bar = better

GAST

#99

Offense

Even

#102

#129

Defense

Even

#120

0.0 #68

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #66

73 plays #10

Pace

◀ ARST faster

68 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ARST offense

	ARST off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #105	31.9 #110	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #106	6.37 #119	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #81	+0.26 #126	ARST
Success rate	40% #102	47% #123	ARST

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #118	34.0 #116	Even
Yards / play	5.47 #95	6.94 #133	GAST
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	+0.29 #132	GAST
Success rate	42% #91	51% #135	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	5.9 #69	4.7 #125	10.6 #115	5.9 #73	7.0 #69	12.9 #73
GAST allowed	8.0 #118	8.2 #84	16.2 #108	6.6 #92	9.1 #118	15.7 #116

GAST scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	1.4 #133	7.7 #81	9.1 #123	6.3 #60	5.3 #113	11.7 #93
ARST allowed	6.1 #92	9.9 #108	16.0 #106	9.2 #126	8.8 #113	18.0 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.