Rutgers @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 6:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

5-4 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

4-5 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

MD -4.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 24–28 MD

✗ MD (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -3.5

CloseMD -4.5

Total50.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMD -3.5

1 → MD

CloseMD -4.5

1 pt toward Maryland

Total

Open50.5

▲ 4

Close54.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MD -3.5 · closed MD -4.5 · moved 1 toward MDmodel MD -5

model MD -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (125 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -3.5

CloseMD -4.5

Total50.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 4.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: RUTG won 31–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 4.5; 52.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	TEX vs KSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	22–17	W	U54.5
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	31–9	W	U57.5
Very close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Close	UCF vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	56–12	W	O55
Close	PUR vs IU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–31	L	O55.5
Close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG LLLLW	4-5	44%	1-2	2-2
MD LLWLW	3-5	38%	2-3	1-3

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG UOOOO	6-3	67%	5-4
MD OOOOU	7-1	88%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MD	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RUTG 10–12 MD MD leads · 22 games since 1920 · RUTG has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Maryland 42 @ Rutgers 24	MD -2	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#63

MD+6.6 →+3.8▼ 2.8#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

RUTG

Longer bar = better

#91

Offense

Even

#88

#96

Defense

Even

#84

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #61

70 plays #34

Pace

MD faster ▶

74 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #89	29.0 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #92	5.75 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.12 #77	Even
Success rate	42% #92	42% #79	Even

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #76	24.1 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #79	6.04 #104	MD
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.17 #104	Even
Success rate	41% #96	44% #107	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	5.0 #89	6.6 #107	11.6 #104	5.8 #75	8.4 #29	14.2 #54
MD allowed	5.8 #84	9.4 #103	15.2 #102	5.1 #56	8.7 #113	13.8 #96

MD scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	5.3 #82	6.8 #103	12.1 #94	6.0 #69	9.3 #17	15.3 #40
RUTG allowed	6.0 #90	5.8 #33	11.8 #61	6.2 #89	6.1 #62	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.