Oregon @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

10-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

5-4 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

ORE -13.5

✓ WIS W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 31–18 WIS

✓ ORE (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -13.5

CloseORE -13.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -13.5

no move

CloseORE -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Close49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -13.5 · unchangedmodel ORE -12.5

model ORE -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 49% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -13.5

CloseORE -13.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 13.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 13.5; 55.3 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	PSU @ IU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	45–14	W	O50
Close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Close	ISU @ TTU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	38–41	L	O55.5
Close	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	KSU @ OKST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	21–29	L	U54
Close	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	37–31	L	O53
Close	KSU @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	19–24	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WWWWL	4-4	50%	2-1	3-4
WIS WWWLL	3-6	33%	1-4	1-4

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OUUOU	3-5	38%	10-0
WIS OOUUO	5-4	56%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	10-0 100%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
WIS	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ORE 5–3 WIS ORE leads · 8 games since 1977 · ORE has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+22.4 →+21.5▼ 0.9#5

WIS+5.7 →+6.4▲ 0.7#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ORE

Longer bar = better

WIS

#13

Offense

◀ ORE better

#78

#16

Defense

◀ ORE better

#63

+0.5 #31

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−0.6 #112

68 plays #56

Pace

Even

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #17	21.4 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #16	5.38 #57	ORE
PPA / play	+0.31 #10	+0.16 #102	ORE
Success rate	50% #7	41% #57	ORE

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	WIS off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #95	16.0 #9	ORE
Yards / play	5.55 #86	4.81 #17	ORE
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.01 #23	ORE
Success rate	45% #43	36% #16	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.3 #22	14.3 #2	22.6 #5	3.7 #118	9.4 #16	13.1 #69
WIS allowed	1.6 #3	6.0 #37	7.6 #9	6.9 #99	7.0 #79	13.9 #96

WIS scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	6.4 #58	6.1 #113	12.6 #88	6.4 #58	6.1 #93	12.6 #82
ORE allowed	3.3 #22	5.5 #27	8.8 #18	3.0 #9	4.2 #14	7.2 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.