Washington @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F4 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington

6-5 · Power #31

final

Final

Oregon

11-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -17.5

✓ ORE W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 18–35 ORE

✓ ORE (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -19

CloseORE -17.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -19

1.5 → WASH

CloseORE -17.5

1.5 pts toward Washington

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -19 · closed ORE -17.5 · moved 1.5 toward WASHmodel ORE -16

model ORE -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 51% (80 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (138 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -19

CloseORE -17.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 17.5-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 17.4; 45.8 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	ORE vs CAL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	MISS vs OU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	26–14	L	U50
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	31–14	L	U47
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-21	17–12	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LLWLW	4-5	44%	0-4	1-4
ORE WWWLL	4-5	44%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OUUUO	3-6	33%	6-5
ORE UUOUU	3-6	33%	11-0

Went over in Q4. Of 389 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%
ORE	10-0 100%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WASH 2–0 ORE WASH leads · 2 games since 2023 · WASH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 1 2023	Oregon 31 @ Washington 34	ORE -10	WASH W
Oct 14 2023	Oregon 33 @ Washington 36	WASH -3.5	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+12.9 →+8.8▼ 4.1#29

ORE+22.4 →+20.8▼ 1.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

WASH

Longer bar = better

ORE

#52

Offense

ORE better ▶

#16

#39

Defense

ORE better ▶

#12

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #37

65 plays #88

Pace

ORE faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	WASH off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #110	15.7 #8	ORE
Yards / play	6.10 #50	4.71 #12	ORE
PPA / play	+0.20 #30	−0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	48% #16	36% #12	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #27	20.5 #27	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #16	4.80 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	+0.04 #38	ORE
Success rate	49% #7	42% #71	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.7 #115	8.4 #66	12.1 #97	4.5 #104	6.1 #94	10.5 #107
ORE allowed	3.0 #12	5.9 #29	8.9 #19	3.0 #9	3.8 #9	6.8 #7

ORE scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.1 #21	13.0 #2	21.1 #9	3.4 #123	9.5 #18	12.8 #75
WASH allowed	3.1 #17	8.8 #95	11.9 #54	4.3 #34	4.3 #13	8.5 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.