Louisville vs Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, 2024)

Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 2:00 PM ESTTony the Tiger Sun Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff61°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

8-4 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Washington

6-6 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

WASH -1.5

✓ LOU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 27–27 WASH

✓ LOU (51%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -4.5

CloseWASH -1.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -4.5

6 → WASH

CloseWASH -1.5

6 pts toward Washington

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -4.5 · closed WASH -1.5 · moved 6 toward WASHmodel LOU -7.5

model LOU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -4.5

CloseWASH -1.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against LOU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 35–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 2.6; 49 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ISU vs ASU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total	-1.5	19–45	L	O51
Close	RUTG vs MIA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-2.75	31–24	W	O40.75
Close	HOU vs AUB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.25	17–13	W	U49.25
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	OKST vs TA&M 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-4	31–23	W	U55.5
Close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	AFA vs JMU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	31–21	W	O44
Close	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-1	37–35	W	O45
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-4	13–31	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LOU LWLWW	6-6	50%	—	1-2
WASH LWLWL	4-6	40%	—	3-1

Venue/role: LOU neutral, as underdog; WASH neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUOUO	8-4	67%	8-4
WASH UUUOO	4-6	40%	6-6

Went over in Q3. Of 402 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
WASH	4-6 40%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.6 →+14.8▲ 5.2#12

WASH+12.9 →+8.1▼ 4.8#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

LOU

Longer bar = better

WASH

#13

Offense

◀ LOU better

#55

#53

Defense

Even

#54

+0.4 #41

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #49

66 plays #79

Pace

◀ LOU faster

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #9	22.8 #41	LOU
Yards / play	6.91 #3	5.00 #27	LOU
PPA / play	+0.26 #17	+0.08 #55	LOU
Success rate	47% #21	44% #91	LOU

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #113	23.3 #50	LOU
Yards / play	5.96 #53	5.28 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #33	+0.10 #71	WASH
Success rate	47% #20	40% #43	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.8 #45	12.0 #8	18.8 #19	10.3 #3	7.5 #57	17.8 #7
WASH allowed	3.4 #19	9.8 #108	13.3 #73	4.5 #37	5.1 #30	9.6 #24

WASH scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.7 #118	8.6 #61	12.3 #95	4.1 #113	6.2 #89	10.3 #110
LOU allowed	6.9 #103	5.3 #19	12.3 #61	4.6 #41	6.4 #61	11.0 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.