Alabama vs Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (ReliaQuest Bowl, 2024)

Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTReliaQuest Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff74°F11 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Alabama

9-3 · Power #7

final

Final

Michigan

7-5 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -16.5

✓ MICH W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 29–14 MICH

✗ ALA (87%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -16.5

Total42.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -11.5

5 → ALA

CloseALA -16.5

5 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open42.5

▲ 3

Close45.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -11.5 · closed ALA -16.5 · moved 5 toward ALAmodel ALA -13

model ALA -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -16.5

Total42.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like ALA as a 16.5-point neutral-site favorite against MICH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 19–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 5 similar games. 32 points stayed under 45.5, as in 1 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 14.4; 61.4 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs SYR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	28–20	L	O44.75
Loose	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · loose	-17	50–30	W	O52
Loose	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5
Loose	ND vs GT 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread	-14	31–13	W	U49.5
Loose	MICH vs PUR 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-15.75	43–22	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ALA WWWLW	7-5	58%	—	6-5
MICH WLWWW	5-5	50%	—	3-3

Venue/role: ALA neutral, as favorite; MICH neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA UUOUU	6-6	50%	9-3
MICH OOUOU	7-3	70%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MICH	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ALA 0–1 MICH MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 1 2023	Alabama 20 @ Michigan 27	MICH -2	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.2 →+20.4▲ 0.2#6

MICH+21.1 →+8.5▼ 12.6#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ALA

Longer bar = better

MICH

#22

Offense

◀ ALA better

#111

#16

Defense

◀ ALA better

#35

+0.8 #18

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

−0.3 #95

65 plays #93

Pace

◀ ALA faster

61 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #16	20.5 #23	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #17	4.92 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #27	+0.09 #64	ALA
Success rate	46% #29	39% #30	Even

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	MICH off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #115	17.3 #9	ALA
Yards / play	4.85 #125	4.87 #16	ALA
PPA / play	+0.02 #117	−0.02 #11	ALA
Success rate	42% #86	39% #29	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	9.3 #9	9.4 #44	18.7 #21	7.5 #32	9.3 #19	16.8 #15
MICH allowed	3.4 #18	7.5 #72	10.9 #40	2.9 #9	6.7 #63	9.6 #23

MICH scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	4.0 #107	7.3 #90	11.3 #105	4.7 #101	6.3 #88	11.0 #103
ALA allowed	1.8 #4	4.8 #12	6.7 #4	6.0 #77	4.6 #16	10.6 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.