Michigan @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff27°F9 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan

6-5 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Ohio State

10-1 · Power #1

final

Closing spread

OSU -20.5

✓ MICH W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 11–32 OSU

✗ OSU (93%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -20.5

CloseOSU -20.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -20.5

no move

CloseOSU -20.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 3

Close41.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -20.5 · unchangedmodel OSU -22.5

model OSU -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 49% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -20.5

CloseOSU -20.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 20.5-point home favorite against MICH, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MICH won 13–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 19.9; 45.5 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs RUTG 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	27–6	W	U40
Very close	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	31–14	L	U47
Close	ALA vs TA&M 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	24–20	L	U48
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LWLWW	4-5	44%	1-2	2-3
OSU LWWLW	6-5	55%	4-3	6-5

Venue/role: MICH away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UOOUO	7-2	78%	6-5
OSU UUUUO	5-6	45%	10-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 57% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%
OSU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 1–0 OSU MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Ohio State 24 @ Michigan 30	MICH -3	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+21.1 →+7.1▼ 14.0#38

OSU+21.3 →+25.3▲ 4.0#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MICH

Longer bar = better

OSU

#106

Offense

OSU better ▶

#45

Defense

OSU better ▶

−0.4 #95

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.5 #38

61 plays #123

Pace

Even

63 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MICH off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #109	10.7 #1	OSU
Yards / play	4.92 #124	4.14 #2	OSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #113	−0.06 #7	OSU
Success rate	43% #76	36% #11	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #9	21.5 #36	OSU
Yards / play	7.00 #3	4.97 #28	OSU
PPA / play	+0.43 #1	+0.11 #76	OSU
Success rate	53% #3	39% #41	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	4.4 #99	7.0 #95	11.4 #103	5.1 #90	6.6 #79	11.7 #98
OSU allowed	3.0 #11	3.9 #7	6.9 #6	0.8 #1	3.0 #3	3.8 #1

OSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.6 #51	13.0 #2	19.6 #16	12.3 #1	5.9 #102	18.2 #7
MICH allowed	3.5 #24	7.5 #68	11.0 #41	3.2 #12	7.3 #80	10.5 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.