Rutgers @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff24°F13 mphgusts 26Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Rutgers

6-5 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

5-6 · Power #70

final

Closing spread

MSU -1.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 22–23 MSU

✗ MSU (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -1

CloseMSU -1.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -1

0.5 → MSU

CloseMSU -1.5

0.5 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -1 · closed MSU -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward MSUmodel MSU -0.5

model MSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (132 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -1

CloseMSU -1.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 1.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 41–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 2.2; 44.9 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Very close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Very close	RUTG vs ILL 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Very close	NU vs PUR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	23–15	W	U47.5
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	14–35	L	O43.5
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	34–48	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG LLWWL	5-6	45%	2-2	3-2
MSU WLLLL	4-7	36%	1-5	0-3

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; MSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OOOUO	7-4	64%	6-5
MSU OOOOU	5-6	45%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 310 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RUTG 1–0 MSU RUTG leads · 1 game since 2023 · RUTG has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Michigan State 24 @ Rutgers 27	RUTG -3.5	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+2.4 →+1.9▼ 0.5#62

MSU−3.8 →−0.3▲ 3.5#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

RUTG

Longer bar = better

MSU

#82

Offense

◀ RUTG better

#104

#95

Defense

MSU better ▶

#68

+0.3 #51

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

−0.6 #113

70 plays #29

Pace

◀ RUTG faster

64 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #81	24.7 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #96	5.38 #55	MSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #79	+0.13 #88	Even
Success rate	43% #73	41% #63	Even

When MSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #124	24.7 #68	RUTG
Yards / play	5.36 #100	6.07 #104	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #109	+0.18 #104	Even
Success rate	42% #81	44% #102	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.4 #101	7.9 #77	12.3 #93	5.4 #79	9.1 #22	14.5 #58
MSU allowed	3.7 #28	7.4 #64	11.1 #43	7.3 #106	6.4 #61	13.6 #89

MSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.6 #71	7.3 #92	12.9 #87	2.1 #131	4.8 #122	6.9 #132
RUTG allowed	5.2 #72	6.2 #35	11.4 #52	6.3 #86	7.1 #78	13.4 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.