Illinois vs Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoff22°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Illinois

8-3 · Power #44

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

4-7 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

ILL -8.5

✓ ILL W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 26–18 NU

✓ ILL (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -7.5

CloseILL -8.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -7.5

1 → ILL

CloseILL -8.5

1 pt toward Illinois

Total

Open45.5

▼ 3

Close42.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -7.5 · closed ILL -8.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -9.5

model ILL -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (113 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -7.5

CloseILL -8.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as an 8.5-point neutral-site favorite against NU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 38–28; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 7.7; 43.6 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PUR vs NU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	32–14	W	U47.5
Close	TOL vs M-OH 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest	-7	14–23	L	U43.5
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Close	ECU vs USF 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	48–28	W	O55.5
Loose	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & total	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5
Loose	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-5	24–17	W	U45
Loose	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	16–21	L	U45
Loose	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Loose	SJSU vs CCU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & season form	-7.5	14–24	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ILL WLLWW	7-4	64%	—	2-2
NU LLWWL	4-6	40%	—	3-4

Venue/role: ILL neutral, as favorite; NU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UUUOO	4-7	36%	8-3
NU UOOUO	6-4	60%	4-7

Went over in Q3. Of 184 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NU	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ILL 0–1 NU NU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Northwestern 45 @ Illinois 43	ILL -6	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.5 →+4.3▲ 4.8#48

NU0.0 →−4.2▼ 4.2#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ILL

Longer bar = better

#52

Offense

◀ ILL better

#131

#80

Defense

Even

#75

+0.5 #40

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

0.0 #76

63 plays #112

Pace

◀ ILL faster

59 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #67	25.3 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #67	5.44 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	+0.09 #63	ILL
Success rate	44% #53	45% #106	ILL

When NU has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	NU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	16.9 #133	21.5 #38	ILL
Yards / play	4.56 #133	5.54 #66	ILL
PPA / play	−0.04 #131	+0.15 #94	ILL
Success rate	36% #128	47% #122	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	6.2 #56	7.8 #77	14.0 #70	4.5 #103	8.3 #40	12.8 #72
NU allowed	3.6 #27	8.4 #84	12.0 #59	6.5 #91	5.5 #45	12.1 #62

NU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	2.7 #130	5.7 #119	8.5 #126	2.7 #127	4.5 #125	7.3 #131
ILL allowed	4.2 #46	7.1 #59	11.3 #50	3.7 #21	6.0 #55	9.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.