South Carolina @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Clemson

Weather at kickoff46°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

8-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

9-2 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

CLEM -2.5

✓ SC W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 25–27 CLEM

✗ CLEM (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -3

CloseCLEM -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -3

0.5 → SC

CloseCLEM -2.5

0.5 pts toward South Carolina

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -3 · closed CLEM -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward SCmodel CLEM -3

model CLEM -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (204 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -3

CloseCLEM -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 2.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 17–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 3.5; 51.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-5	23–0	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WWWLW	8-3	73%	4-0	4-1
CLEM LLWLL	5-6	45%	3-3	5-5

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OOUOO	7-4	64%	8-3
CLEM OUUUO	4-7	36%	9-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
CLEM	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SC 0–1 CLEM CLEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · CLEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Clemson 16 @ South Carolina 7	CLEM -7.5	CLEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+5.6 →+14.6▲ 9.0#13

CLEM+12.9 →+14.6▲ 1.7#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#54

Offense

CLEM better ▶

#15

#23

Defense

◀ SC better

#39

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

CLEM better ▶

+1.2 #6

69 plays #37

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

72 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Even matchup

	SC off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #33	22.0 #41	Even
Yards / play	5.88 #62	5.33 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.04 #39	Even
Success rate	43% #67	37% #24	CLEM

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #10	18.2 #14	Even
Yards / play	6.49 #22	4.61 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #9	0.00 #16	Even
Success rate	48% #17	40% #51	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SC scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.0 #25	8.8 #55	16.8 #36	6.3 #60	9.8 #14	16.1 #28
CLEM allowed	1.8 #6	6.8 #55	8.6 #15	4.0 #28	9.4 #116	13.4 #80

CLEM scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	11.0 #3	11.3 #20	22.3 #4	8.7 #19	6.6 #79	15.4 #40
SC allowed	3.6 #27	6.5 #48	10.2 #29	3.4 #14	4.6 #22	8.0 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.