Pittsburgh @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff38°F8 mphgusts 19DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh

7-4 · Power #57

final

Final

Boston College

6-5 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

BC -3.5

✓ BC W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 24–27 BC

✓ BC (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -3

CloseBC -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBC -3

0.5 → BC

CloseBC -3.5

0.5 pts toward Boston College

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BC -3 · closed BC -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward BCmodel BC -0.5

model BC -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (199 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 52% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -3

CloseBC -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 3.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 34–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 3; 48.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	RUTG vs ILL 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	ISU vs KU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	21–28	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WLLWL	6-5	55%	1-3	2-2
BC LWWWW	7-4	64%	4-2	2-2

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UOUUU	4-7	36%	7-4
BC OOOOO	6-5	55%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 381 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
BC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PITT 1–0 BC PITT leads · 1 game since 2023 · PITT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2023	Boston College 16 @ Pittsburgh 24	PITT -2.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT−0.9 →+4.3▲ 5.2#47

BC−1.3 →+2.3▲ 3.6#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

PITT

Longer bar = better

#62

Offense

◀ PITT better

#82

#52

Defense

◀ PITT better

#67

+0.1 #65

Turnovers

BC better ▶

+0.5 #31

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ PITT faster

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #34	24.2 #61	PITT
Yards / play	6.04 #54	5.56 #70	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	+0.07 #54	Even
Success rate	42% #93	43% #83	Even

When BC has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	BC off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #61	26.1 #78	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #88	5.06 #34	PITT
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.06 #51	PITT
Success rate	42% #87	39% #44	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	7.7 #28	8.7 #56	16.5 #38	5.5 #78	10.7 #6	16.2 #27
BC allowed	3.4 #19	8.9 #96	12.3 #63	4.4 #35	7.5 #90	11.9 #59

BC scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.1 #104	11.3 #20	15.4 #46	7.7 #32	5.7 #108	13.5 #69
PITT allowed	5.9 #90	9.2 #102	15.1 #100	6.7 #96	4.3 #14	11.0 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.