California @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

California

6-5 · Power #55

final

Final

SMU

10-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -11.5

✓ SMU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 21–33 SMU

✓ SMU (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -13.5

CloseSMU -11.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -13.5

2 → CAL

CloseSMU -11.5

2 pts toward California

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -13.5 · closed SMU -11.5 · moved 2 toward CALmodel SMU -13.5

model SMU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 36% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -13.5

CloseSMU -11.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as an 11.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 38–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 54.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 10.5; 61.9 points a game (usually 55). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Very close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	63–17	W	O54
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Very close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-10	45–38	L	O58
Very close	PITT vs MIA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	34–38	L	O61
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Very close	UCF vs COLO 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	21–48	L	O60.5
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LWWLL	6-5	55%	3-1	3-1
SMU WLWLW	5-4	56%	2-2	4-4

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OOOOU	5-6	45%	6-5
SMU UOOOU	5-4	56%	10-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SMU	9-1 90%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAL 1–2 SMU SMU leads · 3 games since 1957 · CAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+2.0 →+4.8▲ 2.8#46

SMU+10.3 →+13.6▲ 3.3#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CAL

Longer bar = better

SMU

#64

Offense

SMU better ▶

#24

#40

Defense

SMU better ▶

#17

+1.2 #4

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

+0.1 #63

69 plays #36

Pace

Even

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	CAL off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #69	21.0 #31	SMU
Yards / play	5.69 #76	4.72 #12	SMU
PPA / play	+0.16 #52	−0.07 #5	SMU
Success rate	44% #60	37% #21	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #4	20.7 #30	SMU
Yards / play	6.47 #24	4.88 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.07 #52	SMU
Success rate	45% #45	41% #56	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.9 #65	8.5 #63	14.4 #64	7.1 #48	6.5 #86	13.5 #67
SMU allowed	3.7 #28	5.8 #24	9.5 #23	6.1 #84	4.8 #28	10.9 #43

SMU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.1 #5	12.9 #4	23.0 #1	6.5 #59	9.1 #22	15.6 #35
CAL allowed	6.1 #95	5.0 #14	11.1 #43	2.3 #4	7.4 #83	9.6 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.