Virginia @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff28°F8 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Virginia

5-6 · Power #77

final

Final

Virginia Tech

5-6 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -4.5

✓ VT W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 21–27 VT

✓ VT (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -7

CloseVT -4.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -7

2.5 → UVA

CloseVT -4.5

2.5 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -7 · closed VT -4.5 · moved 2.5 toward UVAmodel VT -13.5

model VT -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 51% (137 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 68% (22 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -7

CloseVT -4.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 4.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 37–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 5; 46.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	DUKE vs WAKE 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	24–21	L	O41
Close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-4	25–10	W	U43
Close	MICH vs MSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–17	W	O39
Close	MEM vs RICE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	27–20	P	U50.5
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5
Close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5
Close	SYR vs BC 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	10–17	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WLWWL	6-3	67%	4-1	4-1
VT WWLLL	5-6	45%	2-3	4-5

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OUUUU	3-6	33%	5-6
VT OUOUO	7-4	64%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 268 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UVA 0–1 VT VT leads · 1 game since 2023 · VT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Virginia Tech 55 @ Virginia 17	VT -1.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−2.9 →−1.5▲ 1.4#72

VT+4.6 →+7.9▲ 3.3#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UVA

Longer bar = better

#106

Offense

VT better ▶

#85

#91

Defense

VT better ▶

#41

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

VT better ▶

+0.5 #38

70 plays #35

Pace

◀ UVA faster

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	UVA off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #107	23.3 #54	VT
Yards / play	5.30 #106	5.37 #53	VT
PPA / play	+0.06 #108	+0.02 #26	VT
Success rate	40% #104	39% #31	VT

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #61	28.0 #88	VT
Yards / play	5.68 #80	5.90 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	41% #102	42% #70	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	4.5 #99	6.4 #109	10.9 #109	4.0 #113	8.3 #41	12.3 #83
VT allowed	4.4 #48	4.5 #12	8.8 #18	8.3 #121	4.9 #31	13.2 #80

VT scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	6.4 #52	7.5 #85	13.8 #76	4.9 #97	10.3 #8	15.2 #45
UVA allowed	4.0 #35	10.9 #121	14.9 #95	7.7 #112	5.4 #38	13.1 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.