Michigan State @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

4-3 · Power #70

final

Final

Michigan

4-3 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -3.5

✓ MICH W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 18–22 MICH

✓ MICH (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -5

CloseMICH -3.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -5

1.5 → MSU

CloseMICH -3.5

1.5 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open40.5

▼ 1

Close39.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -5 · closed MICH -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward MSUmodel MICH -8.5

model MICH -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (168 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (77 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -5

CloseMICH -3.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 3.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 4.4; 51.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Very close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–22	W	O37
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–31	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LWLWW	4-3	57%	3-0	4-1
MICH –WLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UUUUO	2-5	29%	4-3
MICH –OOOU	4-1	80%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
MICH	7-3 70%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSU 38–75 MICH (5 tied) MICH leads · 118 games since 1898 · MICH has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Michigan 49 @ Michigan State 0	MICH -25.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU−3.8 →+2.1▲ 5.9#60

MICH+21.1 →+7.6▼ 13.5#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MSU

Longer bar = better

MICH

#86

Offense

◀ MSU better

#101

#49

Defense

Even

#47

−0.9 #115

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #123

62 plays #116

Pace

Even

61 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #113	22.1 #52	MICH
Yards / play	5.93 #60	4.98 #31	MICH
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.11 #79	MICH
Success rate	43% #67	37% #24	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	MICH off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #115	20.9 #38	MSU
Yards / play	5.02 #116	5.24 #54	MSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.07 #58	MSU
Success rate	44% #60	40% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.6 #96	8.6 #64	13.1 #87	1.9 #132	6.6 #81	8.4 #127
MICH allowed	2.4 #13	6.6 #53	9.0 #25	4.1 #36	9.0 #114	13.1 #87

MICH scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	4.0 #107	8.3 #68	12.3 #98	3.1 #119	5.7 #100	8.9 #120
MSU allowed	3.4 #30	6.3 #45	9.7 #34	7.3 #108	3.9 #16	11.1 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.