Michigan @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

4-2 · Power #27

final

Final

Illinois

5-1 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -5.5

✓ ILL W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 25–20 ILL

✗ MICH (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -1

CloseMICH -5.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -1

4.5 → MICH

CloseMICH -5.5

4.5 pts toward Michigan

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -1 · closed MICH -5.5 · moved 4.5 toward MICHmodel MICH -4

model MICH -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 49% (65 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 54% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -1

CloseMICH -5.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 5.5-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 21–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 44.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 3.4; 51.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	19–27	L	U46.5
Close	ISU @ BAY 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	30–18	W	O47
Close	WISC @ PUR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	30–13	W	O41
Close	ND @ SYR 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-0.5	41–24	W	O48
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	CLEM @ LOU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Loose	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Loose	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH L–WLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
ILL WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-2	3-0

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; ILL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH O–OOO	4-0	100%	4-2
ILL UUOUO	2-4	33%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	8-2 80%	5-3 63%	6-2 75%
ILL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+21.1 →+9.5▼ 11.6#26

ILL−0.5 →+3.0▲ 3.5#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MICH

Longer bar = better

ILL

#97

Offense

ILL better ▶

#54

#44

Defense

◀ MICH better

#82

−0.7 #110

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+0.7 #33

60 plays #127

Pace

ILL faster ▶

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #105	20.0 #33	ILL
Yards / play	5.11 #113	5.61 #80	ILL
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	+0.16 #97	Even
Success rate	43% #70	46% #118	MICH

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #52	22.3 #55	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #65	5.02 #33	MICH
PPA / play	+0.26 #23	+0.09 #67	ILL
Success rate	43% #74	36% #19	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	4.7 #92	8.5 #68	13.2 #86	3.7 #115	6.7 #76	10.3 #108
ILL allowed	3.3 #30	3.8 #15	7.2 #12	5.2 #63	6.7 #77	11.8 #61

ILL scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	8.0 #31	8.3 #70	16.3 #48	4.5 #99	7.8 #51	12.3 #84
MICH allowed	2.3 #13	6.0 #46	8.3 #25	3.5 #25	10.5 #126	14.0 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.