Nebraska @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

5-1 · Power #41

final

Final

Indiana

6-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -6.5

✓ IU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 20–27 IU

✓ IU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -5

CloseIU -6.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -5

1.5 → IU

CloseIU -6.5

1.5 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open51.5

▼ 4

Close47.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -5 · closed IU -6.5 · moved 1.5 toward IUmodel IU -11

model IU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (103 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -5

CloseIU -6.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 6.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 56–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 6.6; 57.9 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	IU vs MD 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	42–28	W	O49.5
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Close	AFA vs WYO 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	24–14	W	U46.5
Loose	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	UNLV vs SYR 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread	-5.5	41–44	L	O55.5
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6	44–31	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB –WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	—
IU WWWWW	5-1	83%	3-1	5-1

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB –UOUU	1-3	25%	5-1
IU OOOOO	5-1	83%	6-0

Went over in Q3. Of 258 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	3-3-1 50%	3-4 43%
IU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NEB 9–12 IU (3 tied) IU leads · 24 games since 1936 · IU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+2.3 →+5.8▲ 3.5#43

IU−3.2 →+12.9▲ 16.1#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NEB

Longer bar = better

#53

Offense

IU better ▶

#12

Defense

Even

#16

+1.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ NEB better

+0.5 #38

66 plays #79

Pace

IU faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	NEB off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #73	14.8 #11	IU
Yards / play	5.82 #73	4.41 #8	IU
PPA / play	+0.25 #28	−0.01 #19	Even
Success rate	46% #39	37% #24	Even

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	47.5 #2	11.3 #7	Even
Yards / play	7.62 #5	4.37 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.43 #5	−0.03 #14	Even
Success rate	59% #2	36% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	7.5 #40	10.8 #29	18.3 #34	3.3 #119	6.3 #79	9.7 #114
IU allowed	0.0 #1	8.0 #80	8.0 #21	4.0 #33	2.8 #6	6.8 #12

IU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	12.2 #5	12.2 #16	24.3 #8	9.8 #13	13.3 #3	23.2 #2
NEB allowed	2.8 #17	0.5 #1	3.3 #2	2.2 #9	4.7 #35	6.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.