SMU @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

SMU

4-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Louisville

3-1 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

LOU -6.5

✓ SMU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 24–31 LOU

✗ LOU (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -7

CloseLOU -6.5

Total58.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -7

0.5 → SMU

CloseLOU -6.5

0.5 pts toward SMU

Total

Open58.5

▼ 3

Close55.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -7 · closed LOU -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward SMUmodel LOU -7

model LOU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (95 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -7

CloseLOU -6.5

Total58.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 6.5-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SMU won 34–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 5.1; 56.4 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Very close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	OKST vs OU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	37–33	P	O49.75
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	WVU vs TTU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	20–23	L	U55.25
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	28–13	W	U57
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	38–35	P	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU L–L–W	1-2	33%	0-1	—
LOU WWWL	3-1	75%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU U–U–O	1-2	33%	4-1
LOU OOUO	3-1	75%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 239 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	8-2 80%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.3 →+11.4▲ 1.1#18

LOU+9.6 →+14.8▲ 5.2#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SMU

Longer bar = better

LOU

#51

Offense

LOU better ▶

#20

#26

Defense

Even

#25

+1.4 #10

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

+0.8 #35

71 plays #32

Pace

◀ SMU faster

64 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	SMU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #13	16.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.94 #64	4.51 #24	LOU
PPA / play	+0.19 #57	−0.01 #30	LOU
Success rate	43% #71	35% #18	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #17	21.4 #52	LOU
Yards / play	7.46 #11	4.77 #33	LOU
PPA / play	+0.26 #29	−0.12 #8	SMU
Success rate	49% #21	33% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.4 #17	12.8 #16	23.2 #16	9.0 #24	10.0 #21	19.0 #18
LOU allowed	7.0 #102	6.0 #45	13.0 #84	0.8 #4	2.3 #12	3.0 #3

LOU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	9.5 #24	14.8 #6	24.3 #12	8.8 #27	8.5 #44	17.3 #32
SMU allowed	4.2 #56	8.0 #82	12.2 #73	5.8 #72	3.4 #27	9.2 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.